Snell, Joel C. & R. Gary Dean (2021) Future Alternatives.Socialvibes.net, Cedar Rapids: Brock-Martin

Prof. Joel C. Snell (Retired) Kirkwood College, Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Dr. R. Gary Dean (Retired) Creighton University, Omaha, Nebraska

Summary: Authors were contracted to create a description of 2020 from 1970 for water hydrologists at the U.S. Army Department of The Corps of Engineers. Alternative futures created 3 geographic scenarios with different cartographic directions. Total annihilation of the geographic area was not considered as this would nullify any findings. The authors   based alternatives borrowing from human geography, social geography, and economic geography and related. Urban spread was forecast as most likely.

Introduction:

The engineers had to create maps that would take into account “run off” of water, “swup”, flooding and river speed and the preference of elite/mass for the urban periphery. Omaha was created by the overwhelming of the Ponca Tribe by Spaniards in 1809. The Europeans came from heavy population impacted countries with numerous die-offs by airborne illness and infected water.

The disease resistant troops along with the use of metal decimated the Ponca tribe. Omaha is the largest city in Nebraska. From the Missouri to westward drift of about 20 miles the land is not only hilly but near the huge bluffs of Council Bluffs, Iowa. After that, land becomes flat and sparse.

The linkages that facilitated growth of Omaha (500,000) were the intersection of river, roads, rail and air traffic.  Its origins stem from agri-business to increased diversification goods and services today.

The ultimate dependent variable(s) was spread. Will the city build villages within the city of Omaha to reduce sprawl and traffic jams? Or, will Omaha continue westward from the Missouri to the Platte.

1970:

Population was roughly 250,000 at the time.  Downtown was dying, but there were some gentrification. The “Old Market” became not only as a consumer-tourist area, now well known in many cities, but a neighborhood area for downtown renters.

From interviews, the “Iron Law of Oligarchy” (elite over mass) prevailed. Elite wanted spread and a robust downtown. Mass wanted white flight and backyards. The main street is Dodge. It runs from the river to nearly 200^th street. In 1970, 90^th and Dodge was the approximate edge or urban periphery of the city.

2020:

We suggested that in 50 years other social and economic variables would act as intervening variables (necessary but not sufficient to impact growth.) Borrowing from Eric Toffler’s Future Shock and numerous other sources we envisioned serial monogamy, auto-centered traffic, white flight, single dwellings with side and backyard.

Toffler called the emerging economy the super industrial state and we used that term. However for others today, it is the global society. This meant a transitory (“gig”) economy. If a worker is “on call” there is the tendency for households to “double up.” Thus a son or daughter may remain in their own bedroom or in the refurbished basement. This decreases spread. Unless progeny live with a group in an apartment, sprawl can continue. Actually quantitative population to acre was conducted by in department engineers.

Racial divisions were generally divided by African-Americans north of Dodge and White Ethnics and related south of Dodge. Suburbs were filled with White Anglo Saxon Protestant Caucasians. An exurb village contains a multi-racial mix in the northwestern suburban area near a golf course. The population in that area is prosperous.

Today Omaha is an attractive city. From 100^th to approximately 200th is filled with lower and upper middle class. The Elite got the spread and attractive downtown with a blossoming Old Market. We forecasted all the above except the attractive downtown. On that, we were pleased to be wrong.

Further from 56^th and Corby to south of Dodge is filled with neighborhoods (Country Club, Dundee, Harrison, Memorial Park) that surround The University of Nebraska-Omaha. All of this area has been gentrified. In adjusted dollars the homes and related have greatly increased. The leafy streets and historic street lights are apparent.

Crime is located in portions of “near North side” and near downtown Southside.

Alternative Futures:

Green Revolution: In this scenario, certain areas would have shopping, education, and library all within a designated gentrified areas. The city within a city was popular with salaried professionals who wanted Omaha to remain green and not sprawl. This was popular among liberals and social democrats. There would be some replication of Scandinavian cities. Jitneys, ubers,  trolley, micro cars would be the main transportation. This was most resistant by elite.

Urban Spread North: This vision routed traffic to the north. The northwestern area had scenic areas and parks. Already existing small towns had colleges and parks. After 50 years, this area has had significant growth and was considered acceptable to Elite/mass as a second option. Urban Spread South: This was the most popular to most groups. Routing traffic to the south created a metaphorical bridge from Omaha to the second largest city Lincoln. Thus a working couple could purchase a home that would enhance one mate heading to one city and the other mate to the other city. Originally, there was a two lane highway and 60 miles between the two urban centers. Fifty years later, there is a 4 lane separated highway and a distance of 40-45 miles between cities.

Restoration City:

Omaha would decline as a city. More bars, dollar stores and crimnogemicneighborhoods would emerge. Streets, sidewalks, lighting would be in constant repair. Crime would increase as well as gangs, prostitution and related. The downtown would remain unattractive. Big box and department stores would close.

The city would have casinos, strip joints, and porn movie theaters. Strategic corners would be high crime and bars and heavy doors would protect the lower residents of the cities.

Method:

The central street dividing the median of the city is now 90^th street. For the most part we were correct in the cartography. We used semi-structured interviews and divided the labor in that most business, industrial, and commercial were interviewed by a business appearing author Dr. R. Gary Dean.  Prof. Joel Snell was a sociologist and had an alternative appearance. He did much of the writing.

“White flight” was never a term used in these geo-political documents. Nearly all parties representing various interest groups approved 1 of the 3. The Euro-Scandinavian plan was not acceptable to the elite. Although, we prepared the report, the rest is history. Water policy along with all the other problems of building or adding on to the city took its own direction.

The authors were not identified to the public. It was called the Dana Report. Both authors had worked at this college during the creation of the report.

References Cited

Snell, Joel C. & R.Gary Dean (1973) Future Alternatives. Socialvibes.net

Toffler, Alvin (1970) Future Shock, New York: Bantam Books.